Climate change is already happening. A downpour in Göteborg in the middle of August flooded basements and closed roads. A rising sea level is already threatening large parts of the centre of the city.
Both these are examples of the effects of climate change which we will see more of in the future. The amounts of rain in the autumn, winter and spring will rise, increasing the risk of landslides, while the summers will provide extreme weather such as heat waves and downpours.
The sea level at Göteborg has risen by 20 cm over the past century, and the rate of rise is increasing. In this century, the water has on two occasions risen over the level that is considered to be an extremely high highwater mark.
Safety levels for new buildings
Urban planners have taken note of this. There are recommendations in the structure plan that are followed up in the detailed plan. These refer to safety levels, which means that buildings must be constructed one metre above the level of extremely high highwater. For socially important functions the limit is two metres above this level.
But there are other problems that must be solved. What is to be done with the buildings already in existence? Large areas of Göteborg city centre are already at a very low level. There are also areas in the centre of the city that are waiting to be developed. These can be extremely attractive areas – if it is possible to solve the problem that these will be below water during low pressure conditions when the sea level rises.
Frihamnen ( Free Port) – retreat or defence
Such an area is the free port, formerly the place where banana boats and other ships moored. It is situated just below the Göta River bridge, across the river from the very centre of the city.
The free port is a practical example that is to be dealt with in the research project Coordinated approach for the adaptation of cities to climate related hazards. The project is supported by Formas and others.
Project coordinator Sofia Thorsson, Associate Professor in Physical Geography, Göteborg University, says that the researchers will start with strategies for the Free Port that have been drawn up by Mistra Urban Futures. The two strategies selected are Retreat and Defend.
In Retreat, there is limited building development, instead there will be large parks on the old paved surfaces in the port area. Occasional flooding will thus be permitted.
In the scenario Defend, high walls will be built that are designed to withstand floods and protect the dense building development inside. There are also preparations for pumping away rising levels of surface water.
Holistic perspective
One of the things with which the researchers will complement Mistra Urban Futures strategies is the way the district can also be adapted to extreme temperatures and a deteriorated air quality.
In simple terms, the temperature in summer can be lowered by planting among the buildings. This affects air quality in two ways: 1. The plants retard air change and thus the removal of pollutants by wind, 2. The plants absorb or filter the pollutants. It is to be seen which effect will dominate.
-We are applying a holistic perspective, says Sofia Thorsson.
The holistic perspective comprises a vulnerability analysis for the Göteborg population. It is based on identification of risk groups. These may be people with various diseases who are sensitive to heat or airborne pollutants, people who do not speak Swedish sufficiently well to understand information, or the owners of houses that are threatened by flooding or landslides.
Officials involved in the project
When the risk groups have been identified, their representatives will be interviewed, as well as municipal officials who are responsible for these groups, and municipal politicians.
The latter is part of the express ambition to collaborate with practitioners.
-We will present the project to a number of planners in Göteborg in order to elicit a response. We will then include this group in the entire project in order to ensure that we do the right things, says Sofia Thorsson.
Apart from researchers such as physical geographers, atmospheric chemists, geotechnicians and socioeconomists, Ulf Moback is a member of the project from the beginning to the end. He is head of structure planning at the Department of Planning and Building Control and coordinates the Extreme Weather Group of the Municipality.
-Collaboration among researchers and practitioners is the mark of Göteborg, he says.
In actual fact, he does not think that there is a lot of difference between what researchers and practitioners are doing.
-We in public administration are also very close to research, even though we have no doctorate.
It is he who will ensure that the right people will be included in the group of planners who will keep the project under observation.
Tools for planning
What researchers will give planners is a tool for dealing with climate related hazards. In a Multi Criteria Analysis, MCA, hazards and consequences such as heat, flooding, poor air, landslides and slips, will be weighted.
The analysis is based on modelling of thermal comfort, i.e. people’s perception of temperature, air quality modelling, assessment of the risk of natural disasters, vulnerability analysis, and interviews with the public and key representatives of relevant activities regarding wellbeing and perceived welfare.
In the multicriteria analysis, a tool developed at SGI, Swedish Geotechnical Institute, information from different sources, such as interviews and group discussions with experts and those affected by a strategic decision, is collated with facts from previous studies and information acquired in the process.
Innovation and collaboration
The starting point of the researchers is that the adaptation needed to deal with a changing climate can also offer opportunities for innovative solutions. One important part of the project is therefore to develop and propose innovative planning strategies.
-I think that having a holistic approach with progress as the objective is exciting. In Göteborg much is happening, there are a lot of endeavours. There is an interest on the part of the city to do something good, and they listen to researchers. This is the time of opportunities for cooperation and making exciting things happen, says Sofia Thorsson.