Forestry has its own world congress that is held every six years. The latest congress in Buenos Aires was attended by about 4000 delegates from forestry, research and lots of organisations associated with the forest. The sessions dealt with all possible forest issues, but there were nevertheless two themes that recurred all the time, day after day: climate threat and decreasing biodiversity. Climate change was regarded not as a remote threat but as a fact that is already affecting the world’s forests. At the different sessions, case studies were presented from all over the world; on the increase of forest fires in the US, New Zealand and the Mediterranean region, on losses of biodiversity in Indian forests, on changes in the arrival of the rains in East Africa, on the spread of invasive species, for example the mountain pine beetle in Canada.
At left: The large African tree planting project (VI) that has gone on for decades, where trees planted can be donated to Africa. At right: Bare slopes on Mount Elgon, north-west Kenya, an area where the VI forests will provide education and advice to bring about more tree planting, reduced soil erosion and a varied production of wood, timber and food. Potographer: Anders Törnqvist.
Obviously, losses of biodiversity and climate change are closely related. At the Congress they were also coupled to the productivity of the forest. William Jackson of the International Union for Conservation summarised the mood of the Congress: “We have completely underestimated the threat, we have overestimated the stability of the forest ecosystems”.
There was naturally a lot of discussion on the need for strong and quick political action to protect the world’s forests. The need to re-examine earlier attitudes was often referred to. Thomas Tidwell of USDA (US Department of Agriculture) related how the US will now take an active part with the focus on sustainable forestry in the world. Canada is re-examining both her forest policy and her climate policy in view of the threat from the mountain pine beetle that proliferates during warm winters.
Poor countries
Poor countries in Africa asked for capital to save their forests. There is a need there for inducements and institutions that promote development, so that more forest can be conserved and produced without posing a threat to poor people. An end to deforestation is a key requirement. Reforestation and restoration of deforested regions are not so easy to achieve when poor and desperate people cut down their forests so that they can farm. Here, there are no easy win-win situations, and negotiations take place between parties whose power is widely different. Climate policy must be able to offer something to those who pay the short term cost of sustainable forestry. 1.6 billion people live in direct dependence on the forest as their living environment and on forest products in a broad sense.
Three generations
Avrim Lazar, chairman of the organisation for forest products in Canada (FPAC) talked on the three generations of climate policy. The first is platitudes and pointing the finger, the second is slicing, such as conventions, trade with emission rights, taxes. We have just about got to this stage. But Lazar’s conclusion was more radical than this: none of this will be enough. Canada, according to Lazar, is already on the way towards the third generation climate policy. The total result of what we do must govern policy; ecological footprints, total emissions, effects on welfare. This is in actual fact a system shift where the limits set by nature will ultimately determine.
A system shift - what actually does this mean? I had a feeling that the forestry establishment is talking here of solutions that find no place in the production and consumption patterns of today. At the Congress there was really a feeling of a clash of civilisations. Large international players act as system critics and the idea that there must a new view on development seems to be rooted in a large number of organisations and the private sector. Both globalisation and economic growth were questioned. Will the agenda of the social movements become generally accepted? Yes, perhaps in that part of the economy where problems come early.
Sweden and the world
In one remembers that at the previous congress six years ago the issue of climate was very weak, almost peripheral, change has taken place extremely quickly. What will it be like at the next congress? Well, a fifty per cent reduction in greenhouse gases is supposed to be combined with a trebling or quadrupling of the growth in world economy by 2050, and therefore rapid changes in policy are needed.
What about Sweden? The disquiet here is not so widespread. The forestry sector sees climate change as both a threat and opportunities. One opportunity that many see is that it will be warmer in Sweden so that our forests will finally begin to grow more quickly. Another is that the capacity of the forest to absorb carbon will be paid for by climate policy and will be a new source of income. A third is that biofuels will increase in price and will be a new important product. Some people describe climate change as a gift from heaven to Swedish forestry.
There is something deeply human and a little wonderful in our thinking that just here, in Sweden, everything will be all right in any case. But there is also something unpleasant in the idea that the expected problems in the rest of the world are seen as a competitive advantage for us. And all this, naturally, is only wishful thinking. If it gets 4 degrees warmer on earth, the world economy will be in ruins.
If the climate scenarios become reality, there will not be many winners.
Author
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Erik Westholm
is professor of social and economic geography, director of research at the Institute of Future Studies, and is active in the Mistra programme Future Forest with studies of international trends in forestry