Mutual benefit of risk research

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Frozen tunnel. A pilot tunnel has been driven into an area that has been frozen down, in principle by the same technique that is used for e.g. hockey pitches. The pilot tunnel is at ca -25 degrees, and the "snow" is formed by the moisture that is contained in the air in the tunnel. This was the technique applied when the weathered and very difficult Mölleback zone in the Halland Ridge Project was frozen down. When the tunnel boring machine drives through the frozen rock after a few years, it will have to be clad with extra strong tunnel sections which are to hold up the rock when it has thawed out. Photo: Holger Saffansson/Skanska

Mutual benefit of risk research

By Robert Sturk

Do people bathing in Hörsholm Municipality know how good conditions are for them? Every summer, the treatment plant switches on the UV light as an extra stage in effluent treatment. But at present the UV light can only kill bacteria. For the treatment of pharmaceuticals and hormone disrupting substances, other methods and wavelengths are needed. And perhaps legislation.

At the Department of Soil and Rock Mechanics at KTH, research into risk management in soil and rock engineering has been carried on since the middle of the 1980s. In 1993 a research project was initiated into the management of engineering geology risks. The project was modelled on the nuclear and process industries where risk management and the use of tools and working methods is well developed. The objective was to see whether we also could adopt this knowledge and use it in rock engineering and underground construction.

Information in the correct way

It wes a large civil engineering project that was the focus: The Halland Ridge Project with its well known, long and chequered history. It ranges over many scientific disciplines and contains many interesting aspects, from ecology/environment via geosciences to issues related to politics and society. Through data from the Halland Ridge Project, a study was made at KTH of how uncertain information such as data from geological surveys can be handled in a structured manner, and geological forecasts developed using probabilistic models.

The project also describes how important it is that information is communicated in the correct way so that it is understood at all levels, by all the key people in a project.

The information is also of critical importance in increasing risk awareness and in this way avoiding undesirable events.

Open system for risk management

In the Halland Ridge Project we made use of the results of the research project to build up a good system for risk management. The general tool we use is called Risk Administration Tool and makes it possible, inter alia, to quantify and monitor the total risk exposure of the project over time. This means that we can, in a better way, couple up the detailed work on risk management with budgeting and cost control. This results in a transparent estimate of the project's risks and more active risk management. There are no secrets.

We need more knowledge of how the probability that certain events may occur can be judged, and systems for updating risk analyses, monitoring risk alleviating measures and assessing their usefulness.