Sustainability Issue #2 July 2009

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Models for the health of the Baltic Sea

By Christoph Humborg and Henrik Österblom

Baltic Nest Institute describes the flux of nutrients in the Baltic Sea drainage basin and builds models for the effects of these in the sea. International marine environmental targets are set up with the support of the Institute's research, inter alia with regard to fishing and eutrophication.

Baltic Nest Institute is a research institute within Stockholm Resilience Centre. Research by the Institute mainly focuses on describing the flux of nutrients in the Baltic Sea drainage basin, and on modelling the effects of these in the sea.

Enough fishing? Norway, USA and Canada have successful management systems for fishing. Baltic Nest Institute uses these as the model in our part of the world. What if we had as large halibuts as those in Norway! This one weighed 202 kg and was caught by the Danish journalist Sören Beck in 2008 near Lofoten. Photograph: Kristian Keskitalo

For this purpose BNI has models that describe the flux of nutrients from the air and in water, water quality and oxygen deficiency, and the dynamics in and between the subdivisions of the Baltic Sea. Another model describes changes in the food webs and the way fishing, inter alia, affects the development of fish stocks.

Ten years' experience

BNI was developed within the framework of the MISTRA-financed MARE project. The model components which were developed within MARE over the period 1999-2006 are not world leaders as such – much more complex and advanced models are in existence  for the different components. What is however unique about this model system is its geographic scale and the endeavour to model a large marine ecosystem.

Baltic Nest Institute was established in 2007 to manage and continue to develop these models and the Institute also has some of its work located at Århus University in Denmark.

Measures are allocated

There are a large number of models at different geographic scales for the Baltic Sea – but none with the same ecosystem approach as Baltic Nest. Several similar models are however under development, and it will be very interesting to compare the different models and work on "ensemble" modelling. Several similar models are run with the same input data so that the causes of differences in the results may be evaluated.

This type of validation is particularly important since the Nest model is used as support for the managing authorities in the Baltic Sea Region, and to define discharge targets and the allocation of tasks among the countries. It is with the support of the model tools in Nest that the Ministers of Environment in the Baltic Region have been able to draw up ambitious targets for eutrophication within the framework of a regional action plan – Helcom Baltic Sea Action Plan – which is a model in the EU for the management of marine environments.

Tests on changes

Co-location with Stockholm Resilience Centre creates unique conditions for interdisciplinary research, with the Baltic Sea in focus. Many of the theories constructed regarding resilience in social and ecological systems have not been tested so far in the Baltic Region. BNI has at its dispossal a comprehensive database for most of the components of the ecosystem. This makes it possible to analyse regime changes – rapid and extensive changes in the ecosystem – and also changes that give rise to these regime changes, since the database covers several decades of information collected from colleagues in the entire region.

Unsuccessful fisheries policy

BNI has so far focused on natural science issues. In-depth collaboration with Stockholm Resilience Centre, where most of the research relates to institutions and control instruments for successful management, results in better conditions for research about these issues also, with a Baltic Sea perspective.

Fisheries is one example of this. The present situation for the management of fishing in the Baltic Region can to some extent be described as unsuccessful. The same applies to most fisheries in Europe. Baltic Nest Institute has recently, in collaboration with the foundation Baltic Sea 2020, engaged a large number of internationally acknowledged researchers to investigate possible changes in the European fisheries policy for a more sustainable management of the fish resources of the Baltic Sea. By studying successful fisheries management systems in Norway, USA and Canada, as well as the existing literature, the researchers can suggest an improved and sustainable management of European fish resources.

 

Several Baltic sea players

Helcom, Helsinki Commission, is a cooperative agency between the countries around the coasts of the Baltic Sea and the European Environment Agency (EEA). Helcom directs work on the Helsinki Convention, the aim of which is to fight all kinds of pollution of the marine environment of the Baltic Sea and to restore and protect this. The objective of the latest action plan, Baltic Sea Action Plan, is to achieve a good ecological status for the Baltic Proper, Öresund and Kattegatt by the year 2021.

Baltic Sea 2020 is a private, independent foundation, the aim of which is to stimulate specific measures which will improve the environment in the Baltic Sea.

 

Author :

Christoph Humborg is Associate Professor and director of Baltic Nest Institute at Stockholm Resilience Centre

Henrik Österblom is researcher and coordinator of scientific policy at Baltic Nest Institute

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